NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing the anticipated development of El Niño conditions as a key factor in suppressing tropical cyclone activity across the basin.

Forecasters predict 8 to 14 named storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.

According to NOAA’s outlook, there is a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season during the six-month hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 through November 30.

Forecasters predict 8 to 14 named storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Of those systems, 3 to 6 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or greater, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes classified as Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds exceeding 111 mph. NOAA said it has a 70 percent confidence level in these projections.

By comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are equipped with advanced forecasting technologies to provide timely warnings and storm information.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” Lutnick said. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

NOAA Administrator Dr. Neil Jacobs highlighted the agency’s increasing use of artificial intelligence, drones and next-generation satellite technology to improve forecast accuracy.

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” Jacobs said.

El Niño Expected to Limit Storm Activity

NOAA said the forecast is influenced by several competing climate factors. While Atlantic Ocean temperatures are expected to remain slightly above average and trade winds may be weaker than normal—conditions that typically favor tropical cyclone formation—the anticipated development and strengthening of El Niño is expected to suppress overall storm activity.

El Niño generally increases upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions that make it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and intensify.

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham cautioned that even a quiet season can produce devastating impacts.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Graham said. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names

The World Meteorological Organization’s rotating list of storm names for the Atlantic basin in 2026 includes: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.