El Niño intensifies as warmer Caribbean waters heighten risks of heatwaves, drought and flooding — CariCOF

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is warning that strengthening El Niño conditions, combined with steadily warming Caribbean Sea temperatures, are expected to bring more intense heat, prolonged drought in some areas, and an elevated risk of flooding from heavy rainfall during the remainder of the 2026 wet season.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon disrupts global weather patterns, often triggering extreme conditions such as heatwaves, droughts and episodes of heavy rainfall.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook, released on Thursday, the Barbados-based climate agency said the developing conditions are likely to produce increasingly intense humid heat through the peak of the heat season in September, with recurrent heatwaves expected, particularly across the northern Caribbean.

CariCOF also forecast uneven Atlantic hurricane activity through August, followed by a likely slowdown during the traditional peak of the season in September.

The agency said drought conditions affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles are expected to improve more slowly than normal through September. At the same time, rainfall frequency across much of the Caribbean is projected to increase at a slower pace than is typical for this time of year.

Despite the slower recovery in rainfall, CariCOF cautioned that periods of excessive rainfall remain likely and could result in a high to extremely high risk of flooding, flash floods and other cascading hazards.

The outlook also noted that frequent intrusions of Saharan dust are expected to suppress tropical cyclone development while worsening humid heat and reducing air quality across the region.

Through September, the risk of flooding, flash floods and related impacts from heavy rainfall is forecast to remain high to extremely high across most Caribbean territories, with the exception of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.

CariCOF further warned that the replenishment of rivers and reservoirs is expected to be slower than usual in Belize and the Antilles. Fewer wet days through August are also likely to delay the recovery of soil moisture, minimize rain-related interruptions to outdoor activities and only gradually reduce wildfire risk.

As of June 1, severe or worse short-term drought had developed in southwest Tobago and western Barbados. Long-term drought conditions were also affecting eastern Cuba, Grenada, eastern Guadeloupe, southwest Jamaica, Martinique, southwest Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and southeast Suriname.

The climate agency added that agricultural drought is already developing in Saint Lucia and could emerge or persist in Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, eastern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, the Leeward Islands, Martinique and Tobago.